Monday, June 24, 2013

나달 수비가 뛰어나지만 순간적인 수비력은 페더러가 더 뛰어난 거 같음..

페더러 전성기때나 하이라이트 보면 느끼지만 나달도 받을 수 없는 볼을 엄청난 노가다로 수비해 내서 대단하긴 하지만 페더러 하이라이트 보면 절대로 불가능한 거 같은 볼을 막 다리사이로 넣고 진기명기를 부리면서 받아낸다...순간적인 수비력 자체는 나달 보다 페더러가 더 뛰어난 거 같음...

Saturday, June 22, 2013

In the draws of 20 of these 23 slams: Roger got the tougher (higher-ranked) opponent in his semifinal draws while Nadal mostly got the easier opponent.

06/22/2013 | 08:33 PM
There were 23 grand slam tournaments since 2008 Australian Open. In the draws of 20 of these 23 slams: Roger got the tougher (higher-ranked) opponent in his semifinal draws while Nadal mostly got the easier opponent. This made it harder for Roger to reach slam finals (but easier for Nadal to reach finals feeling fresh). Since 2008, every Wimbledon, US Open, Australian semifinal draw has been bad for Roger. See Michael9's posts in comments section of this article:
http://tinyurl.com/k8z29of

http://www.rogerfederer.com/en/esp/news-detail/news/4434-wimbledon-die-auslosung.html

Michael9
The likelihood of such skewed draws affecting one player is incredibly remote. Is it a statistical anomaly that Federer got the tougher semifinal draws while Nadal got the easier draws in 20 of the last 23 draws? An academic (probably a Djokovic fan) did an analysis which suggested it was statistically impossible for Federer and Djokovic to be drawn together so often (see links). But it was really Federer who had the overwhelming number of worst semifinal draws and the pattern started in 2008. Here's a conspiracy theory: are the Grand Slams (especially AO, W, USO) somehow able to manipulate the draws of the top eight seeds (the top two seeds are fixed)? If so, have the Grand Slams been helping Nadal (and/or lately Djokovic) get to finals and/or trying to pressure Federer for being a powerful ATP Player Council president an/or for some other reason? If that's not the case, then it is an incredible statistical anomaly, indeed.
http://tinyurl.com/cjqe3rh
http://tinyurl.com/bn7rsqu

In 2011 ESPN analyzed the U.S. Open draw from a different angle. Dr. Andrew Swift, past chairman of the American Statistical Association Section on Statistics in Sport and an assistant mathematics professor, evaluated the process, data and findings. He concluded: "Any way you want to look at these, there is significant evidence here that these did not come from a random draw," he said.http://tinyurl.com/k73jvpn


http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/tennis/news/20130621/wimbledon-mens-seed-report/?sct=tn_t11_a4


Since 2008 Australian Open there have been 23 grand slam tournaments (6 AO, 6 FO, 6W, 5 USO) in the past 5.75 seasons.
In the vast majority of those slams, Federer has gotten the worst of the three possible semifinal opponents (which has been a dis-advantage in Federer getting to more finals during this period). On the other hand, Nadal has gotten the easier semifinal draw in the vast majority of these slams (which has been an advantage that helps Nadal get to more finals).
Federer's semifinal draws as well as actual semifinal matches had the tougher opponents much more than Nadal got. This made it harder for Roger to reach more finals as well as be in fresh shape in the finals (e.g., 2011 French Open: Federer stopped Djokovic's 43-game winning streak in the semifinal but then faced a fresh Nadal in the final).
Semifinal draws on paper: In 20 of these 23 slams since 2008 AO , Federer got the semifinal draw with the tougher semifinal opponent. These 20 draws were in every Australian Open (6), every Wimbledon (6), every US Open (5) and half of the French Open (6).
- Djokovic was the semifinal draw in 16 of those 23 draws (except 7 draws: 2008 FO, 2010 FO, 2012 AO, 2012 USO, 2013 AO, 2013 FO, 2013 Wimby)
- Murray in 4 semifinal draws (2010 FO, 2012 USO, 2013 AO, 2013 Wimby)
- Nadal in 1 semifinal draw (2012 AO; and this Wimby quarterfinal draw)
- Ferrer in 1 semifinal draw (2013 FO; Federer lost early)
- Davydenko in 1 semifinal draw (2008 FO; Russian lost early).
- Federer drew the fourth seed in only three draws: 2008 FO (Davydenko), 2010 FO (Murray), 2013 French Open (Ferrer)
In the vast majority of these 23 slams,  Djokovic was a tougher and more dangerous threat than Murray. The Serb was more consistent in reaching the semifinals: from 2008 AO to 2013 FO, Djokovic reached 16 of 22 semifinals compared to Murray's 12 of 22 semifinals. Djokovic was also the more dangerous threat in the slams to Nadal/FedererDjokovic: since 2008 AO, Nadal's H2H against Murray was a dominant 11-5 but Nadal was closer 13-12 against Djokovic. Already in 2008, Djokovic had twice beaten Nadal and even took a set off Nadal on clay in 2008 Hamburg.]
In 4 of the last 5 slams, the 'Nadal factor' and 'Murray factor' went against or did not benefit Federer: (a) 2012 Wimbledon: when Nadal lost early, it was Murray who benefited since Federer already had Djokovic in his semifinal draw; (b) 2012 US Open: when Nadal was absent, Federer got Andy Murray in his semifinal draw (and a hot Berdych in the quarterfinals); (c) 2013 Australian Open: when Nadal was absent, Federer again got Andy Murray in his semifinal draw (and a hot Tsonga in the quarterfinals); (d) 2013 French Open: when Murray was absent, Federer benefited from having Ferrer in his semifinal draw (but got the toughest quarterfinal opponent Tsonga) while Djokovic got Nadal in semifinal draw; (e) 2013 Wimbledon: Federer got the worst possible draw with Nadal in quarterfinal, Murray in semifinal and Djokovic in final.
The only three favorable semifinal draws Federer got in the last 5.75 seasons were all in one major the French Open: 2008 French Open, 2010 French Open, 2013 French Open. These past 6 French Opens gave Federer an equal chance (50%-50%) of getting a tougher or easier draw: Federer got 3 tougher and 3 easier semifinal draws. But he did not  take advantage of the 3 easier draws to win the title because (a) he was in the middle of a slump each time and (b) clay is his weakest surface.
Actual semifinal opponents: From 2008 Australian Open to 2013 French Open there have been 22 completed slams. Federer had to actually play the highest seeded semifinal opponent in 11 (65%) of 17 semifinals he contested up to 2013 French Open (Roger did not contest 5 of 22 slam semifinals during this period as he lost 5 quarterfinals). Playing the highest seeded semifinal opponent is a disadvantage when Federer got into the finals.
Specfically, Federer actually played the following opponents in the 17 semifinals he reached (of the 22 completed slams):
- Djokovic in 9 semifinals (from the 16 semifinal draws with Djokovic)
- Murray in 1 semifinal (from 3 previous semifinal draws)
- Nadal in 1 semifinal (from 1 semifinal draw).
- Safin in 1 semifinal (, former No.1, two-time slam champion)
- Del Potro in 1 semifinal (grand slam champion)
- Roddick in 1 semifinal (former No.1, grand slam champion)
- Tsonga in 1 semifinal (slam finalist)
- Tommy Haas in 1 semifinal (former No. 2, four time slam semifinalist)
- Monfils in 1 semifinal (crowd favorite at French Open)
Of all Big Four Players, Nadal benefited most from easier semifinal draws (which have helped Nadal reach several finals since 2008 and he is in fresher shape in the finals).
Nadal got the easier semifinal draw in 17  of the 23 slams between 2008 Australian Open to 2013 French Open.
These were Nadal's semifinal seeded opponents in the draws between 2008 AO and 2013 FO: Ferrer (1), Davydenko (2), Del Porto (1), Soderling (1), Federer (1),  Djokovic (3), Murray (10). [Nadal did get tougher draws in the last two slams upon his return to the tour. However, before that, the vast majority of his draws had the easier semifinal opponent.]
Nadal reached 15 semifinals of 22 slams during this period as he lost early in four slams (he contested 19 slams as he skipped 3 slams).
Nadal played his seeded semifinal opponent in only seven (46%) of 15 semifinals he contested: Federer once, Djokovic two times (Djoko failed to reach one semifinal), Murray 4 times (Murray failed to reach 5 semifinals, Nadal failed to reach 1 semifinal). Ferrer, Davydenko, Delpo, Soderling all failed to reach the semifinals, so Nadal did not have to face them (thus he actually played even lower-seeded opponents who took their place).  In particular, Nadal actually played the No. 3 or higher seed in only 3 of the 15 semifinals he contested.
Specifically, Nadal actually played the following opponents in the 15 semifinals he reached (of the 22 completed slams):
- Rainer Schuettler in 1 semifinal
- Melzer in 1 semifinal 
- Verdasco in 1 semifinal
- Youzhny in 1 semifinal
- Ferrer in 1 semifinal  (slam finalist)
- del Potro in 1 semifinal (grand slam champion)
- Tsonga in 1 semifinal  (slam finalist)
- Federer in 1 semifinal (No.3 Seed)
- Djokovic  in 2 semifinals No 3 once, No. 1 seed once)
- Murray in 5 semifinals (No. 4 seed in four SF, No. 6 seed once)

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/tennis/news/20130621/wimbledon-mens-seed-report/?sct=tn_t11_a4

Thursday, June 20, 2013

He hits very few backhands BH to the opponent's right hand RH side

06/20/2013 | 06:39 PM
I have watched 80% of Roger's matches since 2012 Wimb. My observation is he hits very few backhands BH to the opponent's right hand RH side of the court. 90% of the time opponent knows that its to his left hand side. In Olympics Finals he hit 3 BH shots to Murray's RH and 2 of them winners. Last Sunday he had one to Youzny's RH side and the following shot was a winner. I wish Roger hits more offensive BHs to opponents RH side of the court. Maybe its his game plan. I wish he knows this stats.
 
 
http://www.rogerfederer.com/en/esp/news-detail/news/4425-sechster-halle-titel.html

Roger Federer has been consistently number 1 and Rafael Nadal has been consitently number 2

Nadal has been number 2 consistent and Roger has been number 1 consistent but Nadal has been number 2 consistent much longer than Roger Federer has been number 1 consistent because Roger suddenly got ill from mono virus in 2008. If Roger Federer had not got sick in 2008, Roger Federer could have been number 1 consistent as long as Nadal has been number 2 consistent. Roger has been number 2 consistent too after he got sad unfortunate sudden illness in 2008.

Roger Federer dominated Nadal for 4 years before He got sick in 2008!!!

Roger Federer dominated Nadal for 4 years before he eventually got the unfortunate sudden illness in 2008. Roger Federer won almost every tournaments before He got sick and has been total dominant number one for 4 years while Nadal has been number 2 for 4 years.

It's very sad and unfortunate that the sudden illness shortened the prime time of Roger Federer 2008

It's very sad and unfortunate that the sudden illness shortened the prime time of Roger Federer in 2008. Roger Federer used to win almost every tournaments before He suddenly got ill in 2008. If Roger Federer had not got ill from mono virus in 2008, Roger Federer still win all tournaments and 4 slams a year because Roger beat Nadal 5 matches of 7 last maches before He got sick including 6-0 won in clay court and almost beat Nadal in Rome masters which would have resulted in 7-1 wins and 7-7 tied total H2H. Old Roger still lead H2H against Nadal on all courts except for Clay Court and totally have been dominating Nadal 5-0 in 1500 masters series. in 2008, sick Roger has to be forced down to the lever of Nadal's tennis by the illness, so they have very close matches. Sickened Roger Federer still almost beat Nadal in 2008 wimbledon and 2009 Austrailian Open. Nadal is very lucky because He took advantage when Roger got sick in 2008. He would not have won any slams outside of French Open and bunch of tournaments, If Federer had not got sudden unfortunate illness in 2008. also the Roger's era was stronger than Djokovic's era because Davydenko has a positive H2H against Nadal and Roddick Has a positive H2H against Djokovic.

페더러와 나달의 진짜 테니스 기량차이: 페더러가 나달 스타일에 익숙해지고, 아프기 전엔 나달을 압도했다.

When Roger was used to Nadal's style and was not sick(right before He got sick), Roger Federer dominated Rafael Nadal by beating him 6 times in 8 last matches right before 2008 when federer got sudden unfortunate illness and Nadal never took number 1 spot from Federer in 4years before Roger got sick. Even Federer almost beat Nadal in rome masters which would have made it 7-1 and tied total H2H 7-7, even whithout Rome Masters, if Federer didn't get sick in 2008 He would have leaded Nadal in h2h by much now according to their real talents. Roger even after He got sick have been dominating Nadal in 2500 masters series by 5-0. this is real difference between Federer and Nadal. Roger is the king of tennis and Nadal is no match for Roger Federer. Nadal only got lucky and took advantage of sickness of Roger to win bunch of tournaments when Roger got sick.if Roger had not get sick, Nadal would not have won any 3 slams outside of french and Roger would have leaded H2H against Nadal by 35-9, just like Roger dominated Nadal by 6-2 almost 7-1 right before He got sick in 2008 and got better than Nadal even at clay to be honest. this is when both peaked and completely healthy and used to each other's style and Roger dominated Nadal 6-2 and almost dominated 7-1 if he had won rome masters. And before Federer got sick in 2008, Roger gave Nadal a bagle game in the clay court and He almost beat Nadal reaching match point in rome masters but He got unlucky at the end missing the chance to dominate Nadal to lead 7-1 the last 8 matches they met before Roger got mono illess, so Federer would have dominated Nadal on clay if the sudden unfortunate illness didn't stoped him. Roger just lose a lot of matches on clay to Nadal at first time because Federer just wasn't used to Nadal's unusual play style. So, H2H Federer7-1Nadal is their real score in the normal conditions. this is again proven by sickend Roger leading 5-0 in 1500 masters series which is real difference between the two. eventhough Roger's talent is inmeasurble that It makes even Nadal's great defensive talent talentless, Nadal with a lot of lucks and style match against Federer, Nadal has acomplished records that He doesn't deserve with his defensive lesser talent However, even that lucky record of Nadal cannot even dream of coming close to the record of Federer which was with a lot of unlucky situation and illnesses. Roger Federer is this much dominant player!!! before Federer got sudden unfortunate illness, He won almost everything even with the beast called Nadal in competition. Roger still lead H2H against Nadal on all courts except for clay courtt. Imagine If Roger had not got illness in 2008 and his prime time went as far as it normally should.

페더러가 나달 스타일에 익숙해지고 2008년에 모노 바이러스로 아프기 바로 전까지, 페더러는 나달을 8매치에서 6번을 이겼다. 거기다가 페더러는 로마 마스터즈에서 거의 나달을 이길 뻔했다 이거 이겼으면 7-1이 될뻔했고 총 상대전적은 7-7로 타이를 이룰 뻔 했다 뭐 그거 아니라도 페더러가 아프지 않았으면 상대전적은 원래 그둘의 실력대로 나달에 게 페더러가 훨씬 앞섰겠지만.페더러가 모노 바이러스로 기량이 급쇠락한 후에도 1500마스터에서 5:0으로 압도했음. 이게 진짜 페더러와 나달의 실력차다. 정상적이라면 페더러는 테니스의 황제고 나달은 페더러의 상대가 안되는게 맞다. 나달은 너무 운이 좋은 선수고 아파서 기량이 급쇠락한 페더러로 인해 기회를 잡았을 뿐이다. 만약 페더러가 아프지 않았다면 나달은 프렌치 오픈 이외의 다른 3개의 슬램을 이기지 못했을 것이고, 페더러가 지금쯤 페더러가 아프기 전 나달을 6-2 거의 7-1로 압도했던대로, 나달을 35대 9로 상대전적에서 압도했을 것이고, 솔직히 말하면 클레이 코트에서 조차 페더러가 더 나았을 것이다. 그 둘의 전성기였고 어느 누구도 아프지 않을 때였고, 서로의 스타일에 익숙해져 였을때 페더러가 나달은 6-2로 이겼고, 로마 마스터즈만 이겼더라면 7-1이었다. 거기다 페더러가 아프기 전에 나달을 클레이에서 베이글로 이겻고로 로마 대회도 사실 매치포인트까지 가며 페더러가 이긴 건데 방심하는 바람에 승리를 아쉽게 놓쳤었다. 페더러가 아프지만 않았더라면 클레이에서도 나달을 압도햇을 것이다. 단지 페더러는 나달의 특이한 스타일에 적응이 안되서 클레이에서 초반에 많이 진거엿다.그렇기에 페더러7-1나달 이것이 진짜 페더러와 나달의 정상적인 상대전적이다. 그리고 이것은 기량이 급쇠락한 아픈 페더러에 의해 페더러가 1500 마스터스 시리즈에서 5-0으로 나달을 압도하면서 다시 한번 입증되었다. 이것이 진짜 페더러와 나달의 실력 차다. 페더러의 기량과 재능은 나달이 기량 자체로는 절대적으로 페더러에 딸릴정도로 어마어마하지만, 나달은 스타일 상성과 여러 운이 겹치면서 자신의 실력에 과분한 성적을 거두었다 그 과분한 성적조차도 아직 여러 불운이 겹친 페더러의 성적에는 따라갈 꿈도 못꾸는 정도 페더러가 이정도로 어마어마한 선수다. 로저 페더러는 아직도 나달을 상대전적에서 클레이 빼고는 모든 코트에서 앞서고 있다. 페더러가 2008년에 갑작스런 불운의 병으로 아프기 전까지는 나달이라는 괴물을 앞에 두고도 거의 모든 대회를 우승하던 선수였는데 만약 2008년에 아프지 않아서 전성기가 정상적으로 계속 되었다면, 어떤 성적을 거뒀을지 상상해보라.

The real diffrence between Federer and Nadal in talents: Roger Federer dominated Nadal when he was used to Nadal's style and didn't get sick

Nadal is extremely lucky that Roger got mono virus in 2008. When Roger was healthy, Roger dominated injury free Nadal. When Roger was used to Nadal's style and was not sick(right before He got sick), Roger Federer dominated Rafael Nadal by beating him 6 times in 8 last matches right before 2008 when federer got sudden unfortunate illness and Nadal never took number 1 spot from Federer in 4years before Roger got sick. Even Federer almost beat Nadal in rome masters which would have made it 7-1 and tied total H2H 7-7, even whithout Rome Masters, if Federer didn't get sick in 2008 He would have leaded Nadal in h2h by much now according to their real talents. Roger even after He got sick have been dominating Nadal in 2500 masters series by 5-0. this is real difference between Federer and Nadal. Roger is the king of tennis and Nadal is no match for Roger Federer. Nadal only got lucky and took advantage of sickness of Roger to win bunch of tournaments when Roger got sick.if Roger had not get sick, Nadal would not have won any 3 slams outside of french and Roger would have leaded H2H against Nadal by 35-9, just like Roger dominated Nadal by 6-2 almost 7-1 right before He got sick in 2008 and got better than Nadal even at clay to be honest. this is when both peaked and completely healthy and used to each other's style and Roger dominated Nadal 6-2 and almost dominated 7-1 if he had won rome masters. And before Federer got sick in 2008, Roger gave Nadal a bagle game in the clay court and He almost beat Nadal reaching match point in rome masters but He got unlucky at the end missing the chance to dominate Nadal to lead 7-1 the last 8 matches they met before Roger got mono illess, so Federer would have dominated Nadal on clay if the sudden unfortunate illness didn't stoped him. Roger just lose a lot of matches on clay to Nadal at first time because Federer just wasn't used to Nadal's unusual play style. So, H2H Federer7-1Nadal is their real score in the normal conditions. this is again proven by sickend Roger leading 5-0 in 1500 masters series which is real difference between the two. eventhough Roger's talent is inmeasurble that It makes even Nadal's great defensive talent talentless, Nadal with a lot of lucks and style match against Federer, Nadal has acomplished records that He doesn't deserve with his defensive lesser talent However, even that lucky record of Nadal cannot even dream of coming close to the record of Federer which was with a lot of unlucky situation and illnesses. Roger Federer is this much dominant player!!! before Federer got sudden unfortunate illness, He won almost everything even with the beast called Nadal in competition. Roger still lead H2H against Nadal on all courts except for clay courtt. Imagine If Roger had not got illness in 2008 and his prime time went as far as it normally should.

Roger Federer dominated Nadal before He got sick from the sudden illness

that's because Roger wasn't used to Nadal's unusual style at first. Roger won 5 matches out of 7 matches they met before Roger got sudden unfortunate illness and almost won Rome Masters which would make it 6 matches out of 7 matches and 7-7 tie. Roger would have leaded Nadal Head to Head 34-9 by now If Roger didn't get sick from mono virus and got better at clay than Nadal also. eventhough they mostly met in clay, the H2H was close meaning that Roger lead H2H by much when they would meet equal amount on other courts. Roger dominated Nadal for 6 years. Roger had been number 1 and almost won everything for 6 years before got sick Roger still lead H2H against Nadal on all courts except for clay now. Imagine If Roger didn't get sick which caused his sudden decline. when Roger Federer was sick, He was declined to nadal's level of tennis that He has to play extremely close matches in 2008 wimbledon and 2009 austrailian Open but He still dominate Nadal in 1500 master 4-0.